EUR/USD: Move through 1.0950 should see mild gains towards the upper 1.09 area at least – Scotiabank

EUR is supported on dips as ECB keeps focus on policy tightening risk, economists at Scotiabank report.

EUR risks remain tilted to the topside

ECB Governor Rehn said that prices were slowing, but not as quickly as policymakers wanted while core inflation was falling only gradually. 

Sticky core prices are a key focus for the ECB but hawkish communication is reflected in market price which implies another 50 bps of hikes by the autumn. A late summer (Sep) timeline seems more appropriate from our point of view, however.

EUR risks remain tilted to the topside and minor EUR dips will remain well supported. 

Intraday support is 1.0905 and 1.0875; EUR gains through 1.0950 should see mild gains towards the upper 1.09 area at least.