USD normally weakens for a few months after last Fed hike – TDS

Economists at TD Securities expect the US Dollar to struggle in the coming months.

Ding, dong the Fed is done

The end of the Fed cycle is normally quite bearish for the USD for the first few months. It normally drops >2% in the first two months.

For the US, disinflation is the main driver and sending the strongest directional H2 cue for the USD: choppy but lower, yet with a few USD baskets in play.

Our out of consensus call that US disinflation is strong enough for the Fed to skip July, effectively ending the cycle, would reinforce lower macro vol, late cycle growth dynamics and boost carry.