Japan core inflation continues to fall – Nomura

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Nomura shares the recent price movements and provides their forecasts for the CPI data due to be released at the end of this month.

Key Quotes

“All-Japan core CPI inflation (excluding the effect of the consumption tax increase) fell to +0.7% y-y in November, with the continued decline owing to the impact of lower crude oil prices and deterioration in the output gap on the back of weak consumer spending following the consumption tax hike.”

“Our forecast for December all-Japan core CPI inflation is +2.5% y-y, or +0.5% after excluding the impact of the consumption tax hike, a slowing of 0.2ppt from November. We look for December all-Japan core inflation of +2.1% y-y and +0.4% excluding the impact of the consumption tax hike, unchanged m-m.”

“In addition to continued declines in energy prices resulting from lower crude oil prices, we expect core inflation to be depressed by declines in food prices, as seen in the December Tokyo CPI data.”

“We expect January Tokyo core CPI inflation of +2.2% y-y and +0.3% excluding the impact of the consumption tax hike, a 0.1ppt decline from December. We look for Tokyo core core CPI inflation of +1.8% y-y and +0.3%, on a par with December data. We think energy prices will weigh on core inflation again in January owing to weak crude oil prices.”