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6 Feb 2015
RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy eyed - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Focus in the Australian calendar is the release of the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy at 11:30am Syd, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.
Key Quotes
"Focus in the Australian calendar is the release of the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy at 11:30am Syd. This will include a forecast update and the commentary should justify the rate cut decision. We expect the growth forecast in 2015 will be reduced from 3% to 2.5% and for the core inflation forecast to be revised to 2.25% from 2.75%. Given the lack of forward guidance in the statement following Tuesday’s meeting, markets will be watching this to gauge future policy decisions."
"NZ markets are closed for the Waitangi Day holiday."
"US Jan nonfarm payrolls will be released, with the annual revision for the establishment survey due this month. Risks are for a lower number, with estimates for NFP having fallen slightly post the softer ADP and non-manufacturing ISM employment data. Bloomberg currently has consensus at 230k, but the ‘whisper number’ is probably slightly lower around 210/220. The effects of lower oil prices should come through soon, though this month may be too early. The Westpac forecast for the US Jan unemployment rate is in line with market consensus, at 5.6%. This is expected to remain unchanged from the previous month as job growth is offset by an uptick in participation."
Key Quotes
"Focus in the Australian calendar is the release of the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy at 11:30am Syd. This will include a forecast update and the commentary should justify the rate cut decision. We expect the growth forecast in 2015 will be reduced from 3% to 2.5% and for the core inflation forecast to be revised to 2.25% from 2.75%. Given the lack of forward guidance in the statement following Tuesday’s meeting, markets will be watching this to gauge future policy decisions."
"NZ markets are closed for the Waitangi Day holiday."
"US Jan nonfarm payrolls will be released, with the annual revision for the establishment survey due this month. Risks are for a lower number, with estimates for NFP having fallen slightly post the softer ADP and non-manufacturing ISM employment data. Bloomberg currently has consensus at 230k, but the ‘whisper number’ is probably slightly lower around 210/220. The effects of lower oil prices should come through soon, though this month may be too early. The Westpac forecast for the US Jan unemployment rate is in line with market consensus, at 5.6%. This is expected to remain unchanged from the previous month as job growth is offset by an uptick in participation."