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31 Aug 2015
AUD/USD starts September in continued bearish trend
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is currently recovering from the bearish opening gap at the start of the week and new month that is feeling like it is going to be all about the Fed and US data leading up to the two-day meeting and interest rate decision on the 17th of the month.
AUD/USD and RBA meeting
AUD/USD risk will also come from the RBA this week (tomorrow). While it was looking as though the 'turning-bullish-RBA' may have continued to want to monitor, on an improving jobs market, as opposed to cutting interest rates this time around, the heightened level of awareness of global risks on the back of China's economy negative outlook and subsequent market turmoil may be a leading factor that the RBA will be considering at this month's meeting, creating a greater degree of risk to the downside in the Aussie.
The greenback has been coming back into favor, weighing on the Aussie, which will be a relief to the RBA as it continues to do some of the positive work for the economy. There has been a number of recent remarks in this regard from the RBA through last month's trade which, in fact, started to stablise the downside in the AUD/USD when it started to recover from 0.7215. However, a level that was since penetrated again on Black Monday.
AUD/USD and US data
All in all, the greenback is under the spotlight and taking up the top spot again, aided by the general sentiment and outcome of the weekend's Jackson Hole of which hawkishness is summarized here, ahead of this month's FOMC meeting. Data will be key in the build up to this two-day meeting and we kick off this week, for the US, with US key jobs data in the Nonfarm Payrolls.
AUD/USD technically bearish
Technically, MACD has fallen from 0.0012 highs as the minor recovery from 0.7031 to 0.7005 is consolidating while trend is reversing to the downside again on a firmer greenback. Any further rallies on AUD/USD could struggle on the 0.72 handle ahead of R2 and R3 (0.7250/0.7301) and the pair is generally under pressure while below 0.7448 July 21 high and the 50 DMA at 0.7396.
AUD/USD and RBA meeting
AUD/USD risk will also come from the RBA this week (tomorrow). While it was looking as though the 'turning-bullish-RBA' may have continued to want to monitor, on an improving jobs market, as opposed to cutting interest rates this time around, the heightened level of awareness of global risks on the back of China's economy negative outlook and subsequent market turmoil may be a leading factor that the RBA will be considering at this month's meeting, creating a greater degree of risk to the downside in the Aussie.
The greenback has been coming back into favor, weighing on the Aussie, which will be a relief to the RBA as it continues to do some of the positive work for the economy. There has been a number of recent remarks in this regard from the RBA through last month's trade which, in fact, started to stablise the downside in the AUD/USD when it started to recover from 0.7215. However, a level that was since penetrated again on Black Monday.
AUD/USD and US data
All in all, the greenback is under the spotlight and taking up the top spot again, aided by the general sentiment and outcome of the weekend's Jackson Hole of which hawkishness is summarized here, ahead of this month's FOMC meeting. Data will be key in the build up to this two-day meeting and we kick off this week, for the US, with US key jobs data in the Nonfarm Payrolls.
AUD/USD technically bearish
Technically, MACD has fallen from 0.0012 highs as the minor recovery from 0.7031 to 0.7005 is consolidating while trend is reversing to the downside again on a firmer greenback. Any further rallies on AUD/USD could struggle on the 0.72 handle ahead of R2 and R3 (0.7250/0.7301) and the pair is generally under pressure while below 0.7448 July 21 high and the 50 DMA at 0.7396.