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6 Oct 2015
USDCAD: Downward pressure abated for now - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Ned Rumpeltin, European Head of Currency Strategy at TD Securities, notes that the relentless downward pressure seen on USDCAD over the last several days has abated this morning as spot found some support around the 1.3065 mark.
Key Quotes
“After several days of sharp declines, spot has narrowed the gap to our estimate of ‘fair value’, but with that now around 1.2810 some divergence still remains.”
“Much of this is due, in our view, to the move in interest rate differentials between the US and Canada. These have narrowed substantially in Canada’s favor over the last several weeks as US yields have fallen while their Canadian counterparts have remained largely range-bound. Looking forward, we see the 1.3013 level as key support.”
“Ahead of Friday’s Canadian employment data, the key risk event today for the CAD comes in the form of the August international trade report. We expect the trade deficit to deteriorate further -$1.6b (mkt -$1.1b) as a sharp -3.0% m/m decline in exports is expected to outpace a softer month for imports. Later in the morning, the Ivey PMI for September is forecast to slip from 58.0 to 54.0 which is in line with the market consensus, though we see the potential for downside risk in keeping with the trend across global PMIs.”
Key Quotes
“After several days of sharp declines, spot has narrowed the gap to our estimate of ‘fair value’, but with that now around 1.2810 some divergence still remains.”
“Much of this is due, in our view, to the move in interest rate differentials between the US and Canada. These have narrowed substantially in Canada’s favor over the last several weeks as US yields have fallen while their Canadian counterparts have remained largely range-bound. Looking forward, we see the 1.3013 level as key support.”
“Ahead of Friday’s Canadian employment data, the key risk event today for the CAD comes in the form of the August international trade report. We expect the trade deficit to deteriorate further -$1.6b (mkt -$1.1b) as a sharp -3.0% m/m decline in exports is expected to outpace a softer month for imports. Later in the morning, the Ivey PMI for September is forecast to slip from 58.0 to 54.0 which is in line with the market consensus, though we see the potential for downside risk in keeping with the trend across global PMIs.”