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10 Dec 2015
AUD/USD: 0.7300 and skepticism on Aussie jobs
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD maintains its spot around the 0.73 handle after yesterdays jobs data despite a pull pack from the highs on the knee jerk at 0.7334. This is going to be a hard level to conquer given commodity prices and the RBA's desire for a weaker currency.
However, the jobs data was (dubiously) outstandingly strong and analysts at TD Securities explained the data, "Employment in Nov apparently jumped by +71.4k (TD and mkt –10k) after the outsized Oct (revised down but still a solid +56.1k). As the participation rate jumped to 65.3%, the unemployment rate “only” fell from 5.9% to 5.8%. Annual employment growth surged ahead to 3%/yr, zooming past the guidance that job vacancies suggests."
However, analysts are skeptical that the economy can offer such jobs growth and the analysts at TD Securities wonder how a sub-trend economy with shrinking domestic demand is generating jobs at a pace this year that is literally multiples of recent years. " Employment in original terms used to shrink in October and November (2009-2013) but in 2015 a large number of jobs were created, hence these consecutive outsized seasonally adjusted estimates have dropped out."
AUD/USD levels
Technically, AUD/USD is still some way off the 200 DMA at 0.7449 and only a break of that would be convincing enough that the market is indeed set on the upside, despite the RBA. 0.7380 is the big target now on a push through aforementioned highs while 0.7200 guards guards the 200 SMA on the 4hr chart. S3 is at 0.7166. RSI (14) is neutral while momentum has also turned less positive. Expecting consolidation.
However, the jobs data was (dubiously) outstandingly strong and analysts at TD Securities explained the data, "Employment in Nov apparently jumped by +71.4k (TD and mkt –10k) after the outsized Oct (revised down but still a solid +56.1k). As the participation rate jumped to 65.3%, the unemployment rate “only” fell from 5.9% to 5.8%. Annual employment growth surged ahead to 3%/yr, zooming past the guidance that job vacancies suggests."
However, analysts are skeptical that the economy can offer such jobs growth and the analysts at TD Securities wonder how a sub-trend economy with shrinking domestic demand is generating jobs at a pace this year that is literally multiples of recent years. " Employment in original terms used to shrink in October and November (2009-2013) but in 2015 a large number of jobs were created, hence these consecutive outsized seasonally adjusted estimates have dropped out."
AUD/USD levels
Technically, AUD/USD is still some way off the 200 DMA at 0.7449 and only a break of that would be convincing enough that the market is indeed set on the upside, despite the RBA. 0.7380 is the big target now on a push through aforementioned highs while 0.7200 guards guards the 200 SMA on the 4hr chart. S3 is at 0.7166. RSI (14) is neutral while momentum has also turned less positive. Expecting consolidation.
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