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28 Dec 2015
USD/CNY to rise towards 6.80 in 2016 - SocGen
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Societe Generale, forecasts that the USD/CNY will rise towards 6.80 in 2016, a near 7% CNY depreciation.
Key Quotes
“Our forecasts show a smooth path higher, but there is no guarantee about the process being orderly. The risk is that capital outflows, and a lower appetite from the PBoC to burn FX reserves, will make it occasionally disorderly, and that both CNY weakness and rising regional FX volatility will de-anchor AxJ currencies.”
“Despite the Chinese slowdown and the risk associated with a massive increase in the region’s corporate leverage, AxJ currencies are valued far more richly than other regional EM indices. The bias is for AxJ to partially catch up with the downside, and this will facilitate a further rise of the USD EER. The EUR/CNY is probably past its lows, and that means the underperformance of CEEMA currencies relative to AxJ is over.
Key Quotes
“Our forecasts show a smooth path higher, but there is no guarantee about the process being orderly. The risk is that capital outflows, and a lower appetite from the PBoC to burn FX reserves, will make it occasionally disorderly, and that both CNY weakness and rising regional FX volatility will de-anchor AxJ currencies.”
“Despite the Chinese slowdown and the risk associated with a massive increase in the region’s corporate leverage, AxJ currencies are valued far more richly than other regional EM indices. The bias is for AxJ to partially catch up with the downside, and this will facilitate a further rise of the USD EER. The EUR/CNY is probably past its lows, and that means the underperformance of CEEMA currencies relative to AxJ is over.