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29 Jan 2016
Subsequent post BoJ moves will be shortlived - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities explained that while the BoJ rate cut has generated some interesting moves across markets in its immediate aftermath, we think its effects are likely to fade fairly quickly.
Key Quotes:
"Indeed, a particularly dense US data and event calendar over the next several weeks suggests investors will refocus on USD-centred drivers to guide overall direction.
This move may set off another round of responses by Asian central banks as AXJ currencies jockey for position, but we continue to favour broad JPY outperformance against the USD and other G10 currencies. We are bullish the JPY for structural reasons and see a decent chance that the BoJ’s change in strategy could backfire.
That said, we see some upside risks to our newly-revised end-Q1 USDJPY forecast of 115, but this is more in terms of timing rather than trajectory. At this stage, only a sustained rise above 123.56 is likely to prompt a deeper strategic review of our overall JPY-positive outlook."
Key Quotes:
"Indeed, a particularly dense US data and event calendar over the next several weeks suggests investors will refocus on USD-centred drivers to guide overall direction.
This move may set off another round of responses by Asian central banks as AXJ currencies jockey for position, but we continue to favour broad JPY outperformance against the USD and other G10 currencies. We are bullish the JPY for structural reasons and see a decent chance that the BoJ’s change in strategy could backfire.
That said, we see some upside risks to our newly-revised end-Q1 USDJPY forecast of 115, but this is more in terms of timing rather than trajectory. At this stage, only a sustained rise above 123.56 is likely to prompt a deeper strategic review of our overall JPY-positive outlook."