US: NFP Preview – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs Analysts offer their thoughts on what to expect from today’s US labor market report due out at 1230GMT.

Key Quotes:

We estimate that nonfarm payroll growth slowed to +50k in September ... consensus of +80k and the 3-month average pace of +185k

Unemployment rate 4.5%

Average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m & +2.7% y/y

Our forecast reflects the widespread flooding and power outages caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which affected over 10% of the population and caused over $100bn in damages.

The impact is highly uncertain

Our base-case assumes a significant impact of -125k that partially offsets continued job growth in the rest of the country

We also expect the hurricanes to weigh on the household survey results