US: Can the vigorous growth continue? - Natixis

Patrick Artus, Research Analyst at Natixis, suggests that US growth was vigorous in the second half of 2017, but can this vigorous growth continue in the United States even if demand for goods and services remains strong?

Key Quotes

“This could only happen if:

• Employment can continue to grow rapidly. However, the unemployment rate is very low, the participation rate has stabilised, Americans’ average employability has declined, and massive immigration is no longer an option;
• US companies’ productivity gains become more significant, but the high level of corporate investment, including in new technologies, since the 2010 recovery, has not restored productivity. We cannot see why this would be the case now, even though the tax reform in the United States can (perhaps) lead to additional investment.”