AUD/USD: supported on 21-hr SMA, eyes on 0.79 handle

• AUD/USD: bulls in charge.
• AUD/USD: eyes on a break for the 50% of Jan/Mar decline - 0.7925.

AUD/USD's pop on news that President Trump had promised Australian PM Turnbull an exemption from steel tariffs has been sold into and bulls have been attempting to recover ground along the 21-hr SMA. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7863, up 0.21% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7881 and low at 0.7846.

The Aussie got an early week boost, notching a new two-week peak of 0.7879 and pausing around the 38.2 Fibo at 0.7875 when Turnbull said that Trump had confirmed the exemption in an early Saturday morning call between the two leaders. Turnball also said that the conversation had touched on the security alliance between the U.S. and Australia, as well as possible talks between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Dollar picked up some demand, faded back below 90.00

Meanwhile, the US dollar found some demand at cheaper levels for the committed bulls after an initial offer on the back of the nonfarm payrolls disappointment in the wages ahead of tomorrow's CPI data. However, the DXY struggles at 90.20 and has faded back below the psychological 90 level as US 10-yrs slip below 2.88%. Looking ahead, there is little on the domestic front beside confidence and housing data along with RBA's Kent and Debblle speeches, and instead, eyes will then turn to US retails sales later on in the week.

AUD/USD levels

On a technical basis, the bulls look in control with the price now above the 10, 10 and 21-D SMA's (new support 0.7830). A clean break of the 38.2 Fibo will open the path to 50% of Jan/Mar decline at 0.7925. A break there will open risk to 0.8124/62 (the September 2017 high, the May 2015 high and long-term 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move down from 2014) is the next fortress.