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4 Apr 2014
USD/JPY robbed of the 104 handle for time being
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 103.93, up 0.04% on the day, having posted a daily high at 104.13 and low at 103.80.
USD/JPY has been treading sub the 104 handle post the release of disappointing numbers in the US economy and has been treading water ever since. The markets now await the NFP’s tomorrow and anything close to the 200k market will be enough to convince traders that the Fed is on track towards its tapering regime - that would underpin the dollars strength and make it a 'no-brainer' vs the Yen in the current climate.
March Tankan survey
Analysts in the Global Markets Research team at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd, explained that the March Tankan survey was weaker than expected. “Looking ahead, Japanese manufacturers are expected to remain cautious, facing the downside risk for both exporters and the service sector amid the recent global uncertainty and the sales tax hike. Accordingly, policymakers are expected to try to offset the weak sentiment when deciding the timing of the next sales tax hike close to the end of 2014. Our forecast for the USD/JPY level is 110 at the end of 2014”.
USD/JPY scope for retest 2104 high
Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank noted that USD/JPY has held steady following its recent break above cloud resistance at 103.10 and remains in 2 month highs. She added saying that this break higher targets the 104.45/78.6% retracement. “We suspect there is scope to retest of the 105.45 2014 high, however rallies are likely to stall in this vicinity”.
RSI is in neutral territory at 51.11
Looking to a daily chart, we see that RSI is neutral at 65.13. The 200 SMA is currently at 103.84, up from 102.86 at the last period close, and climbing on the hourly USD/JPY chart. Moving in an upward trend, the exponential average closing price is 102.64.
USD/JPY Levels
With spot trading at 103.93, we can see next resistance ahead at 103.95 (Yesterday's High), 104.03 (Daily Classic R1), 104.13 (Daily High), 104.18 (Daily Classic R2) and 104.40 (Daily Classic R3). Support below can be found at 103.93 (Hourly 20 EMA), 103.89 (Monthly High), 103.89 (Weekly High), 103.88 (Daily Open) and 103.81(Daily Classic PP).
USD/JPY has been treading sub the 104 handle post the release of disappointing numbers in the US economy and has been treading water ever since. The markets now await the NFP’s tomorrow and anything close to the 200k market will be enough to convince traders that the Fed is on track towards its tapering regime - that would underpin the dollars strength and make it a 'no-brainer' vs the Yen in the current climate.
March Tankan survey
Analysts in the Global Markets Research team at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd, explained that the March Tankan survey was weaker than expected. “Looking ahead, Japanese manufacturers are expected to remain cautious, facing the downside risk for both exporters and the service sector amid the recent global uncertainty and the sales tax hike. Accordingly, policymakers are expected to try to offset the weak sentiment when deciding the timing of the next sales tax hike close to the end of 2014. Our forecast for the USD/JPY level is 110 at the end of 2014”.
USD/JPY scope for retest 2104 high
Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank noted that USD/JPY has held steady following its recent break above cloud resistance at 103.10 and remains in 2 month highs. She added saying that this break higher targets the 104.45/78.6% retracement. “We suspect there is scope to retest of the 105.45 2014 high, however rallies are likely to stall in this vicinity”.
RSI is in neutral territory at 51.11
Looking to a daily chart, we see that RSI is neutral at 65.13. The 200 SMA is currently at 103.84, up from 102.86 at the last period close, and climbing on the hourly USD/JPY chart. Moving in an upward trend, the exponential average closing price is 102.64.
USD/JPY Levels
With spot trading at 103.93, we can see next resistance ahead at 103.95 (Yesterday's High), 104.03 (Daily Classic R1), 104.13 (Daily High), 104.18 (Daily Classic R2) and 104.40 (Daily Classic R3). Support below can be found at 103.93 (Hourly 20 EMA), 103.89 (Monthly High), 103.89 (Weekly High), 103.88 (Daily Open) and 103.81(Daily Classic PP).