USD/JPY struggles around 3-week top as Tokyo opens amid mixed feelings

• Welcome prints of second-tier data triggered pullback around 3-week high.
• 200-day SMA seems immediate support with second-tier data being in focus.

USD/JPY trades near 111.70 as Tokyo trading begins on Monday. The quote struggles to extend its upside past three-week high posted on Friday as recently released Japanese data triggered the pair’s pullback in spite of overall risk-on favoring the upside. Few second-tier data from Japan and the US, coupled with risk events, could keep directing near-term trade sentiment.

On early Monday, February month trade balance and current account details from Japan were released. The Trade Balance BOP basis rose to 489.2 billion Japanese Yen from -964.8 billion whereas non-seasonally adjusted current account grew 2676.8 billion versus 600.4 billion prior and 2678.9 billion forecast.

The Yen buyers have recently been challenged as welcome comments from the US-China trade negotiations and upbeat employment details from the US helped global investors to prefer riskier assets.

Global equities remained positive and observed the US stocks that rallied to late-2018 highs. Dow Jones Industrial Average to add around 40 points, or more than 0.1% whereas S&P 500  and Nasdaq Composite were up by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively on Friday close.

The US 10-year Treasury note was merely changed near 2.5% but is well up from the 2.35% lows seen on March 27.
While Japan’s economy watcher survey and consumer confidence index for March can offer immediate direction to the USD/JPY pair, the US factory orders for February can keep being in limelight later on.

The economy watcher survey signals 46.7 consensus for current against 47.5 prior with 49.3 expectations for outlook versus 48.9 earlier. Further, the consumer confidence index could rise to 49.3 from 48.9 whereas the US factory orders could decline by -0.6% compared to +0.1% earlier hike.

Additionally, updates from the US-China trade discussions and Brexit could also offer intermediate trade opportunities.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Not only recent high of 111.85 but the March month top near 112.15, followed by early-December lows around 112.30 could also challenge USD/JPY buyers ahead of pleasing them with 112.80 and 113.30.

Alternatively, 200-day SMA level of 111.50 and 100-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 111.00 might restrict the pair’s near-term declines, a break of which can recall 110.30 and 109.80 on the chart.