US: Economic data surprising to the upside – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts note that the US economic data ended up surprising to the upside and was particularly the case for the August consumer confidence report which saw consumer confidence print at 135.1 compared to expectations of 129.0.

Key Quotes

“The present situations component jumped 6.7pts to 177.2 which shows some resilience to the recent trade noise, and in fact puts it at the highest level since 2000. The expectations component did nudge a little lower though.”

“On the other hand another plus was the jobs-plentiful/jobs hard-to-get series which rose to the highest since 2000 too. Interestingly the data goes against that of the University of Michigan survey and in fact the gap between the two consumer confidence readings is the largest since 1969 and second largest on record.”

“Meanwhile, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index climbed yesterday, jumping 13pts to +1 in August (vs. -4 expected). So that further complicates the picture from the mixed PMIs and regional Fed surveys. The only other data came from the housing market where the S&P CoreLogic house price index rose +0.04% mom in June and a little less than expected.”