EUR/USD: Positive bias for a test of key resistance at 1.1422 – Commerzbank

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1212, representing marginal losses on the day, as the shared currency is consolidating. Although Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, does not dismiss a deeper correction, her bias stays to the upside for a test of key resistance at 1.1422.

Key quotes

“EUR/USD is consolidating – there has been a distinct lack of follow through following the bounce from the 38.2% retracement at 1.1172. This is disappointing and it is possible that we will see a deeper retracement to the 200-day ma at 1.1034 ahead of a swing higher. While this would delay our forecast it does not alter it – the view stays positive.”

“Key resistance remains the 1.1422 recent high and this, together with the March high at 1.495, represent quite formidable resistance and we would allow them to hold the initial test. However, a break higher is favoured and above here will target 1.1570, the 2019 high, then 1.1815/22, the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the 2018 peak and the 1.1862 2008- 2020 resistance line.”