India’s deepest recession on record will linger through the rest of 2020 – Reuters poll

According to the latest Reuters poll of over 50 economists, India's economy is likely to remain in contraction for the balance of this year, in the wake of the continued surge in the coronavirus cases in the country.

Key findings

“With business activity completely stalled for the most part in the previous quarter owing to a nationwide lockdown to contain the virus’ spread, the Indian economy likely shrank 18.3% during that period.

The economy is forecast to contract 8.1% in the current quarter and 1.0% in the next - a downgrade from 6.0% and 0.3% contraction, respectively, predicted in a July 29 poll, dashing hopes of a recovery this year.

Asia’s third-largest economy is expected to grow again in the first three months of 2021, by 3.0%.

But that will still leave it down 6.0% for the fiscal year that ends in March, which would be the worst 12-month performance on record.

Asked when Indian GDP would reach pre-COVID-19 levels, over 80% of economists, or 30 of 36, said it was likely to take more than a year, including nine who predicted it to take more than two years.”

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