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3 May 2013
Forex Flash: NFP figures could portend monthly fallout for USD – BTMU
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The direction of the dollar will of course be determined by the non-farm payrolls report, released today. According to the BTMU Research Team, “The 119k gain in the ADP along with all the other variables we use in our NFP model have given us an estimate for today of 104k.”
That is roughly consistent with the ADP reading and some government job losses. There may be a slight upside risk to this prediction given the 88k reading in March might have been excessively weak, allowing for some degree of giveback today. Moreover, “We suspect a range of 100k-140k would be broadly neutral for the dollar, especially given most other major central banks have either eased or are expected to over the coming months.” they add.
That is roughly consistent with the ADP reading and some government job losses. There may be a slight upside risk to this prediction given the 88k reading in March might have been excessively weak, allowing for some degree of giveback today. Moreover, “We suspect a range of 100k-140k would be broadly neutral for the dollar, especially given most other major central banks have either eased or are expected to over the coming months.” they add.