Sterling likely to fall further – SocGen

GBP/USD has neared the 1.18 level while EUR/GBP has hit 0.85. Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, believes that the British pound is set to sustain further losses.

Tighten too much, or watch the pound fall?

“Sterling’s likely to fall further as growth slows, even if rates rise more than they ought to. Tightening less would weaken the currency further.”

“The only way of keeping inflation expectations firmly anchored might be to force central banks who miss their targets to lose their jobs. But that would simply reinforce the tendency to go on tightening too far into the cycle and ensure that it ends with recession rather than soft landing. Maybe the only answer is to teach the public about the importance of lags…”